Escaping Bias as a Defense Lawyer to Better Value Claims

The defense lawyer is in the evaluation business because every case ultimately comes down to value—what it’s worth today, what it could be worth if it goes the distance, and how to position it for the best possible outcome. Clients—whether insurers, self-insured businesses, or third-party administrators—need practical, numbers-driven assessments that inform financial decisions. That means understanding liability, damages, jurisdiction, opposing counsel, and venue, all while factoring in the intangibles that drive case valuation. A defense lawyer who can’t confidently and clearly quantify exposure isn’t an asset to their client—they’re a liability. The goal isn’t just to defend the case but to provide a framework for decision-making, ensuring the client is never flying blind when it comes to risk and resolution.

Bias is the enemy of accurate claim valuation. It clouds judgment, skews numbers, and leads to bad decisions—whether overvaluing a case out of fear or undervaluing it because of overconfidence. As a defense lawyer, your job is to see the claim for what it is, not what you want it to be. Here’s how you escape bias and get to the right number.

1. Separate Advocacy from Valuation
You are a litigator. You are trained to argue, to find weaknesses in the opposition, to poke holes in their case. That’s fine in the courtroom, but when you’re evaluating a claim, you need a different mindset. Strip away the advocacy and assess the case as if you were a mediator or an adjuster. The question isn’t, “Can I beat this case?” The question is, “What is this case worth based on venue, all of the evidence, realistic application of the law, and risk?”

2. Use Data, Not Gut Feelings
Anecdotes and instincts can lead you astray. Use verdict reports, settlement data, and historical outcomes in the venue where your case is pending. Maintain an internal database of resolved claims and refer back to it. Numbers don’t lie—your memory of past cases might.

3. Get Multiple Perspectives
Run your valuation by a colleague, an adjuster, or even a plaintiff’s lawyer you trust. Fresh eyes can spot blind spots. If the case justifies it, consider a focus group or mock jury. The best way to test a case is to see how people outside your legal bubble react to it.

4. Challenge Your Own Biases
Stop and ask:
• Am I discounting this claim because I don’t like or respect the plaintiff’s lawyer?
• Am I assuming a jury will see things the way I do, instead of how a layperson would?
• Am I ignoring red flags because I personally think the claim is weak?
Good defense lawyers play devil’s advocate with themselves. If you don’t challenge your own thinking, a jury will.

5. See the Case Through a Plaintiff’s Eyes
A great plaintiff’s lawyer will find the most compelling way to tell their client’s story. How will they do it? Will they emphasize corporate negligence? Emotional harm? A sympathetic plaintiff? You can’t value a claim accurately unless you understand how the other side will package it for a jury.

6. Venue and Judge Matter—A Lot
You can’t evaluate a case in a vacuum. A slip-and-fall in downtown Charleston is worth something very different than the same claim in rural South Carolina. Some judges lean toward plaintiffs. Some are tough on damages. Know where you are and adjust accordingly.

7. The Economics of the Case Are Real
Litigation is expensive. Even a defensible case might not be worth trying if the cost to win is greater than the cost to settle. Factor in the time, expense, and risk of trial. If your client is self-insured or has a high retention, make sure they see the full financial picture.

8. Quantify Risk with Decision Trees or Probability Models
Breaking down liability, damages, and potential outcomes into probabilities forces objectivity. “We have an 80% chance of a defense verdict” sounds good, but what about the 20% risk? Running a claim through a structured model makes valuation more objective and defensible.

9. Don’t Let Overconfidence Kill You
Every defense lawyer has been burned by a case they thought was a slam dunk. Practice note: There are no slam dunks. Juries are unpredictable, emotion plays a role, and wild verdicts happen. The best lawyers recognize uncertainty and factor it into their strategy.

10. Pay Attention to What Opposing Counsel Is Signaling
If the plaintiff’s lawyer is serious, experienced, and their demand is in the ballpark, that tells you something. A smart adversary won’t waste time on a number that’s wildly out of range. You don’t have to agree with them, but you do have to respect the signals they’re sending.

Bottom Line
Valuing claims is an art and a science. The best defense lawyers take a disciplined, structured approach, stripping away bias and letting the numbers and solid, objective facts dictate the outcome. If you can do that, you won’t just get better at valuations—you’ll get better results for your clients.